Ferenc Gyurcsány, Hungary’s longest serving prime minister since the country’s transition to democracy twenty years ago, suprised even the most avid political analysts by announcing his imminent resignation. Gyurcsány spoke at the Hungarian Socialist Party’s congress, where he recommended that the left-centre party form a new government, headed by a new prime minister. „I misjudged our strength and the opportunities before us and I did not offer a clear and straightforward speech at a critical moment. As such, my credibility decreased significantly”–Gyurcsány told party delegates.

Gyurcsány will call for a vote of confidence  in parliament this coming week, which he is almost certain to lose, in light of the fact that the four opposition parties hold a majority in the Hungarian national legislature. The liberal Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ) has been calling for Gyurcsány’s resignation for a year, when it decided to leave the governing coalition. The largest opposition party, the right-leaning Fidesz, as well as the Christian Democratic Peoples’ Party (KDNP) and the centrist Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF) have called for Gyurcsány’s resignation over the years. Fidesz, however, is also adamant that new national elections be held on 7 June 2009, in conjunction with the European Parliamentary (EP) vote. The national vote would otherwise be scheduled for spring 2010.

All polls suggest that the Socialists stand to suffer a massive defeat, with Fidesz scooping up all but 5 or 6 of the 22 seats allocated to Hungary in the European Parliament. The deeply unpopular prime minister’s resignation, however, may offer the Socialist Party a glimmer of hope that left-centre voters–especially pensioners–might be re-engaged and convinced to vote. There has also been talk of a so-called „olive branch coalition” between the Socialists, the SZDSZ and the MDF, especially if the country’s new prime minister is independent of these parties and is seen as capable of handling Hungary’s dire economic situation. The MDF recently tried to nominate Lajos Bokros, a former finance minister in Prime Minister Gyula Horn’s Socialist government and the conservative opposition party’s main candidate in the upcoming EP elections, as prime ministerial candidate to replace Gyurcsány, but with no success. While the SZDSZ would probably support a Bokros prime ministership, the left-wing Socialists almost certainly would not, nor would Fidesz or the KDNP. Bokros holds neo-liberal economic views, calling for radical austerity measures and deep cuts to pensions, health care and education.

Even if Gyurcsány is replaced in the next two weeks, he will stay on as Socialist Party president. „Despite all of our shortcomings and our weakness, we stood on the right side,” Gyurcsány told party faithful in what may now be his last major address as prime minister.

The Hungarian economy is currently the most fragile in the European Union. The country’s debt-to-GDP ratio stands at an estimated 73 percent and is expected to rise to over 80 percent by early next year.

Canadian Hungarian Journal