Forty-one year old Gordon Bajnai became democratic Hungary’s seventh prime minister on Tuesday, when MPs of the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) and the Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ) joined together to elect recently resigned Ferenc Gyurcsány’s replacement. Bajnai, who is not a member of the Socialist Party, now faces the unpleasant task of introducing massive austerity measures, totalling more than 500 billion forints. Bajnai promised that the cuts „will hurt” and that the „bitter pill will not be sugar-coated.” Bajnai also promised that his prime ministership would last no longer than one year, at which point there will be national elections, which he will not participate in. As such, it is already certain that Bajnai’s unhappy prime ministership will be remembered for its unprecedented cutbacks to pensions, welfare and child-support, all of which are unavoidable if Hungary is to keep its deficit from ballooning again and if the battered Eastern European country is to continue making mandatory payments related to its massive national debt.

Bajnai’s problem is that implementing a package of austerity measures is much easier said than done. Former prime minister Ferenc Gyurcsány–who was charismatic, flamboyant and a card-carrying Socialist–failed to convince his own party to support major financial reforms and welfare cutbacks and had to water-down each of his proposed measures in order to make them seem more acceptable. Even then, Gyurcsány’s proposals ended up in the rubbish bin. Bajnai will almost certainly have an even more difficult time, seeing that he is not a member of any political party and is reportedly not especially well-liked among the Socialists. This uncomfortable relationship was most apparent when Bajnai attended the latest Socialist Party congress and was forced to stand on stage as party functionaires stood together and sang „The Internationale.” Bajnai looked visibly distressed and uncomfortable, as party members sang the socialist (and once communist) anthem with some enthusiasm. It was later revealed that the Socialists had never told Bajnai of their musical plans. The new prime minister’s surprise and displeasure are both evident in clips that have made the rounds on YouTube.

If the Internationale incident is any indication, then Bajnai has reason to fear. Socialist MPs may have signed a statement declaring that they would support the prime minister’s austerity measures, but if the European Parliamentary election of June 7, 2009 brings the widely anticipated decimation of the Hungarian Socialist Party, the MPs will all but certainly begin to wonder whether their support of Bajnai’s programme would not serve as the final fatal blow, ahead of national elections next spring. A poll released by the Progressive Institute (Progressziv Intézet) already shows the Socialists with only 10 percent support and this represents a historic low for the party. Bajnai may not be running for political office in 2010, but most of the 204 MPs who elected him certainly will be. As such, their political careers now depend on the fledgling government. Bajnai would have to pass as many of his measures as possible, before the June vote, if his government is to be successful.

Being Prime Minister of Hungary is an unhappy job these days and Bajnai may not yet understand the full extent of what he will face. As prime minister, Bajnai will likely be undermined by some of the Socialists who supported him, he will face stinging attacks from Fidesz–the largest opposition party, which will offer no cooperation and will continue to press for early elections–and will have to deal with the same, relentless far-right protesters who often caused chaos on streets under his predecessor. Bajnai has a remarkable challenge on his hands and his chances of success are modest.

Canadian Hungarian Journal